Why $1B Exits are Dead

May 30, 2026

0:58

So, here’s a wild thought — $1B exits in startups might soon be a thing of the past. According to David George from a16z and David Clark from VenCap, the rise of AI is turbocharging how quickly companies grow and scale. They point out that today’s AI startups are moving faster than any previous generation, thanks to frontier models, coding agents, and open-source tools. But here's where it gets interesting — these rapid advances are making it harder for venture capitalists to spot true winners early on. As content+a16zpodcast@a16z.com explains, data center constraints and ecosystem shifts mean larger outcomes are happening sooner, with value created at lightning speed. So what does this mean for investors? They’ll need sharper eyes and different strategies to keep up. And get this — these trends aren’t slowing down. The real question is whether traditional billion-dollar exits will even stay relevant in this fast-evolving landscape.

David George, General Partner at a16z, and David Clark, CIO at VenCap, discuss how AI is reshaping venture capital and the technology industry itself. They examine why today’s AI companies are scaling faster than any previous generation of startups, and why the eventual outcomes may be significantly larger than most investors currently expect.

The conversation covers frontier AI models, coding agents, open source competition, data center constraints, and who ultimately captures value in the AI ecosystem. They also discuss what these shifts mean for venture capital itself, including larger company outcomes, faster value creation, and the growing challenge of identifying durable winners in a market evolving at unprecedented speed.

Resources:

Follow David George on X: https://x.com/DavidGeorge83

Follow David Clark on X: https://x.com/daveclark85

Follow VenCap on X: https://www.vencap.com

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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

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Audio Transcript