Energy, Minerals, and the Physical Stack Behind AI

May 14, 2026

1:06

Energy, Minerals, and the Physical Stack Behind AI

Ever wonder what it really takes to power the AI boom in America? Turns out, it's all about cracking the critical minerals and modernizing old-school grid systems. According to Erin Price-Wright and her colleagues at a16z, the US is more than 50 years behind China in securing these vital resources. But here’s where it gets interesting — automation, reinforcement learning, and vertical integration could speed up mining and refining dramatically. Drew Baglino points out that solid-state transformers can replace ancient mechanical equipment, making our grid smarter and more resilient. Meanwhile, Turner Caldwell highlights how autonomous systems are removing bottlenecks in mineral processing. Content+a16zpodcast@a16z.com notes that lessons from Tesla — like tech optimism and risk-taking — are shaping these efforts. The key? Smarter policies, faster permitting, and a serious federal push on grid investment. So, the real question isn’t just about resources — it’s about who moves faster before these gaps become the new normal.

Erin Price-Wright speaks with Turner Caldwell and Drew Baglino about what it will take to close America's critical minerals gap and modernize the power infrastructure that underpins the AI economy. With the US more than 50 years behind China in critical mineral supply and grid infrastructure built on systems designed a century ago, they examine where the real bottlenecks are and how to move faster.

The conversation covers how automation, reinforcement learning, and vertically integrated operations can compress the timelines for mining and refining, and why co-locating supply chains matters more than labor costs in the race to reshore manufacturing. Baglino explains how solid state transformers can replace aging mechanical grid equipment with silicon and software, while Caldwell outlines how Mariana Minerals is applying autonomous systems to remove the know-how bottleneck from critical mineral processing.

They also discuss the lessons both founders carried from Tesla — techno-optimism, appetite for risk, and mission-driven talent — and what durable industrial policy, smarter permitting, and a federal grid investment framework would unlock for American competitiveness.

Resources:

Follow Michael on X: https://x.com/tbc415

Follow Drew on X: https://x.com/baglino

Follow Erin on X: https://x.com/espricewright

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Audio Transcript